Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: UA 1279 at 06:13 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–32%.

Safest bet that day UA 1279 DEN 06:13 → IAD 11:41 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest UA 2408 DEN 18:00 → IAD 23:32 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1279 United Flight history →	DEN 06:13	IAD 11:41	6%	2%	0.6%	94%
UA 1101 United Flight history →	DEN 08:00	IAD 13:26	8%	3%	0.6%	94%
UA 1924 United Flight history →	DEN 23:59	IAD 05:27	15%	6%	0.9%	94%
UA 2087 United Flight history →	DEN 10:20	IAD 15:53	16%	5%	0.6%	81%
UA 2853 United Flight history →	DEN 12:26	IAD 17:58	21%	8%	0.6%	82%
UA 347 United Flight history →	DEN 13:53	IAD 19:22	25%	13%	0.6%	87%worse than usual
UA 421 United Flight history →	DEN 15:40	IAD 21:11	29%	12%	0.6%	71%
UA 2408 United Flight history →	DEN 18:00	IAD 23:32	32%	11%	0.7%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON