Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: UA 6020 at 07:45 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–42%.

Safest bet that day UA 6020 DEN 07:45 → ICT 10:16 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest WN 1781 DEN 19:29 → ICT 22:00 · 42% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 6020 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 07:45	ICT 10:16	13%	4%	0.6%	90%
UA 5497 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 09:55	ICT 12:27	15%	4%	0.6%	91%
WN 2564 Southwest	DEN 11:34	ICT 14:04	23%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 5454 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 13:59	ICT 16:34	24%	9%	0.8%	85%
OO 4753 SkyWest	DEN 15:40	ICT 18:05	28%	11%	0.8%	no record
UA 4755 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 21:09	ICT 23:44	30%	11%	3.9%	80%worse than usual
UA 1788 United	DEN 17:38	ICT 20:12	35%	12%	0.8%	no record
WN 1781 Southwest	DEN 19:29	ICT 22:00	42%	12%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON