Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: UA 1451 at 11:12 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 26–29%.

Safest bet that day UA 1451 DEN 11:12 → JAX 16:36 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest WN 2153 DEN 13:44 → JAX 19:02 · 29% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1451 United Flight history →	DEN 11:12	JAX 16:36	16%	5%	0.6%	85%
UA 1485 United Flight history →	DEN 16:07	JAX 21:40	26%	12%	0.6%	83%
WN 2153 Southwest	DEN 13:44	JAX 19:02	29%	6%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON