tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: United via LAX, leaving 06:04, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Kailua/Kona on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 1758 United Flight history → DEN 12:15 KOA 15:37 17% 5% 0.7% 85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kailua/Kona on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kailua/Kona is 4 h behind Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → DEN 06:04 → LAX 07:34UA 1093 1h 34m Los Angeles LAX 09:08 → KOA 11:50UA 2373 9h 46m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → DEN 05:15 → SFO 06:53UA 2367 1h 17m San Francisco SFO 08:10 → KOA 10:40UA 1721 9h 25m 97% 86%
UnitedDetails → DEN 13:25 → SFO 15:09UA 1812 3h 51m San Francisco SFO 19:00 → KOA 21:43UA 1723 12h 18m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → DEN 12:29 → LAX 13:56DL 2148 2h 48m Los Angeles LAX 16:44 → KOA 19:17DL 311 10h 48m 96% 78%
AmericanDetails → DEN 07:55 → PHX 08:58AA 1404 1h 42m Phoenix PHX 10:40 → KOA 14:06AA 663 10h 11m 90% 67%
AlaskaDetails → DEN 07:05 → SEA 08:51AS 317 1h 07m Seattle SEA 09:58 → KOA 12:51AS 709 9h 46m 84% 60%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON