tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: United via SFO, leaving 05:15, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Lihue on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 2307 United Flight history → DEN 12:00 LIH 15:37 23% 7% 0.8% 85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Lihue on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Lihue is 4 h behind Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → DEN 05:15 → SFO 06:53UA 2367 1h 55m San Francisco SFO 08:48 → LIH 11:43UA 1111 10h 28m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → DEN 06:04 → LAX 07:34UA 1093 1h 11m Los Angeles LAX 08:45 → LIH 11:44UA 1295 9h 40m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → DEN 11:21 → SFO 13:04UA 1561 3h 51m San Francisco SFO 16:55 → LIH 19:42UA 1684 12h 21m 99% 81%
AmericanDetails → DEN 07:55 → PHX 08:58AA 1404 1h 51m Phoenix PHX 10:49 → LIH 14:36AA 697 10h 41m 92% 65%
AlaskaDetails → DEN 07:05 → SEA 08:51AS 317 2h 37m Seattle SEA 11:28 → LIH 14:40AS 258 11h 35m 100% 64%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → DEN 12:29 → LAX 13:56DL 2148 49m Los Angeles LAX 14:45 → LIH 17:41DL 428 9h 12m 71% 56%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON