Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: UA 5369 at 09:35 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21–39%.

Safest bet that day UA 5369 DEN 09:35 → LIT 12:54 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest UA 1470 DEN 17:42 → LIT 20:53 · 39% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5369 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 09:35	LIT 12:54	16%	6%	0.6%	89%
UA 5760 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 13:20	LIT 16:42	21%	9%	0.6%	88%
WN 3705 Southwest	DEN 13:08	LIT 16:17	29%	6%	0.6%	no record
UA 1470 United	DEN 17:42	LIT 20:53	39%	12%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON