Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 14 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: WN 1667 at 05:19 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 1667 DEN 05:19 → MCO 10:51 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 2520 DEN 19:20 → MCO 01:04 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1667 Southwest	DEN 05:19	MCO 10:51	5%	1%	0.7%	no record
UA 1437 United	DEN 05:56	MCO 11:34	6%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 1672 Southwest	DEN 00:05	MCO 05:27	7%	2%	0.7%	no record
UA 799 United	DEN 00:12	MCO 05:52	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 1668 Southwest	DEN 07:44	MCO 13:14	11%	3%	1.0%	no record
UA 2292 United Flight history →	DEN 08:10	MCO 13:57	12%	4%	0.8%	89%
F9 4646 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 06:35	MCO 12:19	12%	4%	0.9%	86%
UA 2354 United Flight history →	DEN 10:10	MCO 16:04	16%	6%	0.8%	85%
UA 501 United Flight history →	DEN 13:48	MCO 19:39	22%	11%	0.7%	73%
F9 3312 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 10:36	MCO 16:30	28%	9%	1.0%	74%
UA 259 United Flight history →	DEN 17:52	MCO 23:41	29%	10%	0.8%	78%
WN 2137 Southwest	DEN 15:31	MCO 21:04	30%	9%	0.7%	no record
WN 1671 Southwest	DEN 18:49	MCO 00:20	30%	10%	0.7%	no record
F9 2520 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 19:20	MCO 01:04	33%	16%	1.1%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON