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Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Delta via Detroit, leaving 00:59, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Myrtle Beach on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Myrtle Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Myrtle Beach is 2 h ahead of Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DEN 00:59 → DTW 05:48DL 1096 2h 57m Detroit DTW 08:45 → MYR 10:39DL 1145 7h 40m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → DEN 05:45 → ATL 10:44DL 341 1h 33m Atlanta ATL 12:17 → MYR 13:37DL 3182 5h 52m 97% 79%
DeltaDetails → DEN 13:14 → ATL 18:14DL 706 3h 58m Atlanta ATL 22:12 → MYR 23:31DL 3074 8h 17m 100% 78%
DeltaDetails → DEN 00:40 → ATL 05:42DL 302 3h 06m Atlanta ATL 08:48 → MYR 10:07DL 3047 7h 27m 100% 76%
AmericanDetails → DEN 06:41 → CLT 12:04AA 573 2h 13m Charlotte CLT 14:17 → MYR 15:18AA 2495 6h 37m 97% 65%
UnitedDetails → DEN 07:40 → EWR 13:27UA 2640 2h 28m Newark EWR 15:55 → MYR 18:03UA 3589 · flown by Republic 8h 23m 98% 61%
DeltaDetails → DEN 10:52 → ATL 15:52DL 346 53m Atlanta ATL 16:45 → MYR 18:03DL 1093 5h 11m 78% 55%
AmericanDetails → DEN 14:24 → CLT 19:43AA 1662 1h 29m Charlotte CLT 21:12 → MYR 22:20AA 1085 5h 56m 76% 54%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON