Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: WN 1696 at 08:29 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 43–45%.

Safest bet that day WN 1696 DEN 08:29 → OAK 10:05 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest WN 1048 DEN 18:04 → OAK 19:41 · 45% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1696 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 08:29	OAK 10:05	10%	2%	0.6%	93%
WN 986 Southwest	DEN 11:45	OAK 13:21	24%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 1698 Southwest	DEN 13:59	OAK 15:39	33%	8%	0.6%	no record
WN 1700 Southwest	DEN 21:19	OAK 22:59	43%	13%	2.4%	no record
WN 1048 Southwest	DEN 18:04	OAK 19:41	45%	12%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON