Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: WN 3723 at 08:29 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–36%.

Safest bet that day WN 3723 DEN 08:29 → OKC 11:12 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1704 DEN 19:24 → OKC 22:08 · 36% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3723 Southwest	DEN 08:29	OKC 11:12	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 6029 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 08:00	OKC 10:49	12%	4%	0.6%	97%
UA 5324 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 10:05	OKC 13:01	14%	5%	0.6%	90%
WN 1702 Southwest	DEN 10:54	OKC 13:31	16%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1656 United	DEN 13:35	OKC 16:26	23%	10%	0.7%	no record
UA 4727 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 20:42	OKC 23:29	30%	17%	1.7%	76%
F9 1928 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 16:52	OKC 19:42	32%	16%	0.9%	83%worse than usual
UA 1184 United Flight history →	DEN 17:31	OKC 20:11	34%	14%	0.8%	70%
WN 392 Southwest	DEN 16:57	OKC 19:46	34%	13%	0.6%	no record
WN 1704 Southwest	DEN 19:24	OKC 22:08	36%	15%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON