Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: WN 1705 at 08:29 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–40%.

Safest bet that day WN 1705 DEN 08:29 → OMA 11:06 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time Riskiest WN 4423 DEN 19:04 → OMA 21:41 · 40% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1705 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 08:29	OMA 11:06	11%	2%	0.6%	68%
OO 510 SkyWest	DEN 08:10	OMA 10:50	12%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 1633 United	DEN 10:12	OMA 12:58	15%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 1306 Southwest	DEN 10:34	OMA 13:11	15%	3%	0.6%	no record
OO 4802 SkyWest	DEN 15:35	OMA 18:17	23%	12%	0.8%	no record
UA 2327 United Flight history →	DEN 13:50	OMA 16:24	25%	9%	0.7%	84%
WN 1707 Southwest	DEN 16:34	OMA 19:11	31%	10%	0.7%	no record
UA 1436 United Flight history →	DEN 17:36	OMA 20:15	34%	13%	0.7%	66%
UA 1787 United Flight history →	DEN 21:05	OMA 23:42	35%	15%	2.0%	68%
F9 1874 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 16:02	OMA 18:46	39%	14%	0.8%	71%worse than usual
WN 4423 Southwest	DEN 19:04	OMA 21:41	40%	12%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON