Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: UA 1308 at 10:05 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 34–44%.

Safest bet that day UA 1308 DEN 10:05 → PIT 15:16 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest WN 4551 DEN 18:44 → PIT 23:45 · 44% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1308 United Flight history →	DEN 10:05	PIT 15:16	14%	4%	0.6%	85%
WN 1739 Southwest	DEN 10:35	PIT 15:37	17%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 2155 United Flight history →	DEN 17:38	PIT 22:45	34%	12%	0.8%	71%
WN 4424 Southwest	DEN 15:19	PIT 20:21	37%	10%	0.6%	no record
WN 4551 Southwest	DEN 18:44	PIT 23:45	44%	11%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON