Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: UA 4674 at 10:43 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–34%.

Safest bet that day UA 4674 DEN 10:43 → RAP 12:09 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest UA 2781 DEN 19:41 → RAP 21:08 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 37% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 4674 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 10:43	RAP 12:09	17%	6%	4.4%	81%
UA 1585 United	DEN 11:16	RAP 12:35	21%	7%	5.3%	no record
UA 5303 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 21:03	RAP 22:23	27%	14%	11.5%	81%
UA 5891 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 14:37	RAP 16:01	27%	10%	9.2%	74%
UA 5225 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 17:55	RAP 19:24	32%	15%	7.3%	53%
UA 2781 United Flight history →	DEN 19:41	RAP 21:08	34%	16%	5.3%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON