Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 18 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: WN 1753 at 07:34 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–40%.

Safest bet that day WN 1753 DEN 07:34 → SAN 08:58 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3408 DEN 21:04 → SAN 22:28 · 40% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1753 Southwest	DEN 07:34	SAN 08:58	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 2309 United Flight history →	DEN 07:43	SAN 09:05	13%	5%	0.6%	90%
WN 1754 Southwest	DEN 08:34	SAN 09:58	15%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 1940 United Flight history →	DEN 11:54	SAN 13:23	21%	8%	0.6%	82%
OO 3120 SkyWest	DEN 09:45	SAN 11:16	22%	8%	0.8%	no record
UA 1302 United Flight history →	DEN 13:30	SAN 14:55	25%	10%	0.6%	87%worse than usual
F9 2711 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 22:29	SAN 00:02	27%	11%	1.8%	81%
UA 2395 United	DEN 21:05	SAN 22:46	28%	14%	1.6%	no record
AS 1342 Alaska	DEN 13:16	SAN 14:38	28%	7%	0.8%	no record
WN 1755 Southwest	DEN 12:07	SAN 13:27	28%	6%	0.6%	no record
UA 1281 United Flight history →	DEN 15:55	SAN 17:20	29%	12%	0.6%	85%worse than usual
F9 2817 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 14:21	SAN 15:52	30%	11%	1.0%	83%worse than usual
UA 540 United Flight history →	DEN 19:20	SAN 20:46	31%	13%	0.6%	65%
AS 636 Alaska	DEN 18:57	SAN 20:20	33%	9%	0.9%	no record
WN 1771 Southwest	DEN 14:20	SAN 15:46	34%	8%	0.6%	no record
WN 4263 Southwest	DEN 16:09	SAN 17:36	37%	11%	0.7%	no record
WN 1133 Southwest	DEN 18:09	SAN 19:36	39%	11%	0.7%	no record
WN 3408 Southwest	DEN 21:04	SAN 22:28	40%	13%	3.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON