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Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: WN 1776 at 10:34 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 1776 DEN 10:34 → TUL 13:18 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2291 DEN 19:29 → TUL 22:13 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
WN 1776 Southwest DEN 10:34 TUL 13:18 13% 2% 0.6% no record
UA 5315 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → DEN 10:04 TUL 12:59 14% 5% 0.6% 88%
UA 5311 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → DEN 13:40 TUL 16:29 19% 9% 0.6% 90%
OO 5484 SkyWest DEN 15:31 TUL 18:28 24% 12% 0.6% no record
UA 4712 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → DEN 20:55 TUL 23:47 25% 14% 1.4% 81%
WN 1813 Southwest DEN 15:59 TUL 18:43 30% 8% 0.7% no record
UA 1937 United Flight history → DEN 17:37 TUL 20:27 33% 13% 0.8% 80%worse than usual
WN 2291 Southwest DEN 19:29 TUL 22:13 33% 10% 0.8% no record
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON