tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: United via Dulles, leaving 07:20, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Albany on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 50% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Albany on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Albany is 1 h ahead of Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → DFW 07:20 → IAD 11:26UA 2639 1h 33m Dulles IAD 12:59 → ALB 14:25UA 4317 · flown by CommuteAir 6h 05m 96% 83%
DeltaDetails → DFW 05:20 → DTW 09:04DL 2183 1h 36m Detroit DTW 10:40 → ALB 12:20DL 3810 · flown by SkyWest 6h 00m 97% 83%
AmericanDetails → DFW 07:00 → CLT 10:44AA 317 3h 56m Charlotte CLT 14:40 → ALB 16:39AA 440 8h 39m 100% 78%
DeltaDetails → DFW 16:21 → ATL 19:30DL 921 2h 08m Atlanta ATL 21:38 → ALB 23:59DL 2584 6h 38m 100% 78%
DeltaDetails → DFW 10:06 → ATL 13:25DL 839 1h 50m Atlanta ATL 15:15 → ALB 17:38DL 1241 6h 32m 98% 77%
AmericanDetails → DFW 09:38 → PHL 14:00AA 402 3h 59m Philadelphia PHL 17:59 → ALB 19:14AA 5823 · flown by Piedmont 8h 36m 98% 72%
UnitedDetails → DFW 07:08 → ORD 09:50UA 1695 2h 14m Chicago ORD 12:04 → ALB 15:09UA 2792 7h 01m 97% 71%
AmericanDetails → DFW 14:33 → CLT 18:06AA 1698 2h 03m Charlotte CLT 20:09 → ALB 22:18AA 589 6h 45m 93% 67%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → DFW 17:15 → IAD 21:24UA 1240 50m Dulles IAD 22:14 → ALB 23:41UA 4321 · flown by CommuteAir 5h 26m 58% 48%
DeltaDetails → DFW 16:10 → LGA 20:51DL 869 1h 26m New York LGA 22:17 → ALB 23:21DL 5493 · flown by Endeavor 6h 11m 75% 48%
UnitedDetails → DFW 12:25 → IAD 16:31UA 358 46m Dulles IAD 17:17 → ALB 18:44UA 4926 · flown by CommuteAir 5h 19m 50% 41%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON