Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: AA 1083 at 07:47 is the safest bet, 19% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 37–42%.

Safest bet that day AA 1083 DFW 07:47 → BDL 12:11 · 19% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1425 DFW 18:49 → BDL 23:31 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1083 American	DFW 07:47	BDL 12:11	19%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 1367 American Flight history →	DFW 13:02	BDL 17:49	37%	10%	0.8%	68%
AA 1425 American Flight history →	DFW 18:49	BDL 23:31	42%	15%	1.2%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON