Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: MQ 4032 at 07:28 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–34%.

Safest bet that day MQ 4032 DFW 07:28 → ICT 09:01 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5086 DFW 20:25 → ICT 22:06 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 4032 Envoy	DFW 07:28	ICT 09:01	13%	3%	1.4%	no record
AA 4142 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 09:31	ICT 10:55	14%	3%	1.1%	83%
AA 3479 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 12:26	ICT 13:49	17%	3%	1.4%	90%
AA 3691 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 22:26	ICT 23:53	19%	6%	1.9%	67%
OO 6218 SkyWest	DFW 14:58	ICT 16:18	25%	9%	0.7%	no record
OO 6217 SkyWest	DFW 16:16	ICT 17:42	26%	8%	0.8%	no record
OO 6236 SkyWest	DFW 17:50	ICT 19:16	28%	8%	0.7%	no record
AA 5086 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DFW 20:25	ICT 22:06	34%	13%	1.9%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON