Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 24–30% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


OO 6223 SkyWest	DFW 10:58	IDA 12:54	24%	7%	1.2%	no record
AA 6467 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DFW 19:25	IDA 21:25	30%	8%	1.2%	69%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Idaho Falls on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Idaho Falls is 1 h behind Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DFW 12:30 → SLC 14:20DL 2798	2h 50m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:10 → IDA 18:18DL 3895 · flown by SkyWest	6h 48m	98%	88%
United Details →	DFW 05:45 → DEN 06:53UA 773	1h 12m Denver	DEN 08:05 → IDA 09:50UA 5374 · flown by SkyWest	5h 05m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	DFW 08:12 → SLC 09:57DL 1291	1h 13m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:10 → IDA 12:28DL 3765 · flown by SkyWest	5h 16m	91%	84%
American Details →	DFW 05:50 → ORD 08:10AA 2999	2h 41m Chicago	ORD 10:51 → IDA 13:39AA 6239 · flown by SkyWest	8h 49m	100%	67%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	DFW 14:31 → SLC 16:18DL 2800	52m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:10 → IDA 18:18DL 3895 · flown by SkyWest	4h 47m	72%	65%
United Details →	DFW 16:50 → DEN 18:20UA 1303	1h 00m Denver	DEN 19:20 → IDA 21:07UA 5989 · flown by SkyWest	5h 17m	61%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON