Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: AA 1061 at 07:29 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 35%.

Safest bet that day AA 1061 DFW 07:29 → JAX 10:59 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 2449 DFW 17:45 → JAX 21:16 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1061 American Flight history →	DFW 07:29	JAX 10:59	14%	5%	1.3%	89%
AA 687 American Flight history →	DFW 09:38	JAX 13:11	20%	7%	0.9%	64%
AA 1472 American	DFW 13:00	JAX 16:35	29%	9%	0.9%	no record
AA 1460 American	DFW 15:42	JAX 19:14	34%	12%	1.0%	no record
AA 2197 American	DFW 19:02	JAX 22:31	35%	13%	1.1%	no record
AA 2449 American Flight history →	DFW 17:45	JAX 21:16	35%	13%	1.0%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON