Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: AA 2157 at 07:26 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–38%.

Safest bet that day AA 2157 DFW 07:26 → MSY 09:07 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest AA 842 DFW 17:29 → MSY 19:04 · 38% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2157 American Flight history →	DFW 07:26	MSY 09:07	15%	4%	1.0%	79%
AA 1684 American	DFW 08:44	MSY 10:28	17%	5%	0.9%	no record
AA 1650 American	DFW 10:14	MSY 11:52	24%	6%	0.9%	no record
F9 4994 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 14:52	MSY 16:37	30%	11%	0.9%	72%
AA 379 American	DFW 13:25	MSY 15:03	30%	8%	1.0%	no record
AA 1455 American Flight history →	DFW 22:05	MSY 23:44	33%	10%	1.4%	59%
AA 2237 American Flight history →	DFW 20:07	MSY 21:49	35%	11%	1.4%	59%
AA 3254 American Flight history →	DFW 16:05	MSY 17:51	36%	9%	1.0%	56%
AA 842 American	DFW 17:29	MSY 19:04	38%	9%	1.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON