Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: United via SFO, leaving 06:56, is the safest bet: 76% chance of reaching Kahului on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 123 American Flight history →	DFW 11:13	OGG 14:23	28%	13%	0.7%	66%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kahului on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kahului is 5 h behind Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	DFW 06:56 → SFO 08:43UA 790	1h 22m San Francisco	SFO 10:05 → OGG 12:34UA 573	10h 38m	91%	76%
Alaska Details →	DFW 14:03 → PDX 16:01AS 303	1h 44m Portland	PDX 17:45 → OGG 20:40AS 353	11h 37m	91%	75%
American Details →	DFW 07:08 → PHX 07:34AA 474	3h 29m Phoenix	PHX 11:03 → OGG 14:32AA 645	12h 24m	99%	73%
Delta Details →	DFW 08:13 → SLC 09:59DL 1291	1h 31m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:30 → OGG 14:08DL 623	10h 55m	94%	72%
Alaska Details →	DFW 09:57 → SEA 12:03AS 365	1h 50m Seattle	SEA 13:53 → OGG 16:59AS 223	12h 02m	95%	71%
Alaska Details →	DFW 06:24 → SEA 08:45AS 543	1h 30m Seattle	SEA 10:15 → OGG 13:19AS 929	11h 55m	94%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON