Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: MQ 4084 at 23:00 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; morning flights run 17%.

Safest bet that day MQ 4084 DFW 23:00 → OKC 00:13 · 16% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1458 DFW 21:29 → OKC 22:33 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 4084 Envoy	DFW 23:00	OKC 00:13	16%	5%	2.4%	no record
AA 1902 American Flight history →	DFW 08:57	OKC 10:09	17%	6%	0.9%	82%
AA 4946 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DFW 07:19	OKC 08:22	17%	6%	0.7%	100%worse than usual
MQ 3612 Envoy	DFW 18:30	OKC 19:44	18%	6%	1.3%	no record
AA 2734 American Flight history →	DFW 11:01	OKC 12:10	25%	9%	1.0%	47%
AA 1760 American	DFW 14:57	OKC 16:13	30%	12%	1.0%	no record
AA 2812 American Flight history →	DFW 17:09	OKC 18:25	30%	14%	1.1%	27%
AA 2929 American Flight history →	DFW 13:24	OKC 14:30	31%	10%	1.0%	77%
AA 1355 American	DFW 21:05	OKC 22:17	34%	15%	1.1%	no record
AA 1458 American Flight history →	DFW 21:29	OKC 22:33	39%	14%	1.3%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON