Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: AA 2135 at 07:53 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 38–40%.

Safest bet that day AA 2135 DFW 07:53 → OMA 09:47 · 18% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2167 DFW 18:32 → OMA 20:32 · 40% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2135 American	DFW 07:53	OMA 09:47	18%	5%	1.2%	no record
AA 2823 American Flight history →	DFW 09:27	OMA 11:27	24%	6%	1.1%	70%
AA 2269 American Flight history →	DFW 13:45	OMA 15:45	29%	9%	1.2%	75%
AA 2270 American Flight history →	DFW 16:45	OMA 18:45	38%	11%	1.3%	54%
AA 2628 American Flight history →	DFW 22:05	OMA 23:54	40%	12%	1.7%	52%
AA 2167 American	DFW 18:32	OMA 20:32	40%	12%	1.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON