Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 13 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: AA 1794 at 08:07 is the safest bet, 23% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 38–43%.

Safest bet that day AA 1794 DFW 08:07 → SAN 09:15 · 23% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1160 DFW 20:58 → SAN 22:06 · 43% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1794 American	DFW 08:07	SAN 09:15	23%	6%	0.9%	no record
AA 1058 American	DFW 09:20	SAN 10:42	24%	7%	0.9%	no record
AS 690 Alaska	DFW 08:03	SAN 09:07	25%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 3109 American	DFW 11:09	SAN 12:24	33%	10%	0.9%	no record
AS 545 Alaska	DFW 15:21	SAN 16:29	33%	8%	0.7%	no record
AA 2361 American Flight history →	DFW 14:34	SAN 15:51	36%	11%	1.0%	69%
AA 648 American	DFW 14:11	SAN 15:10	38%	11%	1.0%	no record
AA 2266 American	DFW 16:42	SAN 17:49	38%	11%	1.0%	no record
F9 1425 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 16:40	SAN 17:55	39%	15%	1.2%	66%
AA 2568 American Flight history →	DFW 22:29	SAN 23:37	39%	11%	1.0%	56%
AA 1789 American	DFW 17:51	SAN 18:59	40%	11%	1.2%	no record
AA 1243 American Flight history →	DFW 19:02	SAN 20:03	42%	12%	1.1%	58%
AA 1160 American	DFW 20:58	SAN 22:06	43%	12%	1.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON