Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: AA 4009 at 08:31 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–23%.

Safest bet that day AA 4009 DFW 08:31 → SHV 09:46 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest OH 5372 DFW 12:58 → SHV 14:00 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4009 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 08:31	SHV 09:46	8%	2%	1.7%	92%
OO 6347 SkyWest	DFW 10:21	SHV 11:36	16%	7%	0.9%	no record
OO 6251 SkyWest	DFW 22:10	SHV 23:19	19%	6%	1.3%	no record
OO 6464 SkyWest	DFW 17:22	SHV 18:33	23%	9%	1.1%	no record
AA 6245 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DFW 19:06	SHV 20:15	23%	7%	1.0%	74%
OH 5372 PSA	DFW 12:58	SHV 14:00	24%	10%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON