tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, AA 2679 at 12:36, with a 33% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 2679 American Flight history → DFW 12:36 SRQ 16:16 33% 10% 3.7% 66%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sarasota/Bradenton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sarasota/Bradenton is 1 h ahead of Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DFW 05:50 → ATL 09:00DL 401 1h 47m Atlanta ATL 10:47 → SRQ 12:27DL 3104 5h 37m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → DFW 16:22 → ATL 19:32DL 921 3h 35m Atlanta ATL 23:07 → SRQ 00:45 +1DL 2997 7h 23m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → DFW 06:45 → ATL 09:59DL 893 3h 43m Atlanta ATL 13:42 → SRQ 15:22DL 3115 7h 37m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → DFW 10:06 → ATL 13:25DL 839 2h 13m Atlanta ATL 15:38 → SRQ 17:17DL 3109 6h 11m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → DFW 13:50 → ATL 17:14DL 414 2h 40m Atlanta ATL 19:54 → SRQ 21:33DL 1057 6h 43m 95% 78%
AmericanDetails → DFW 04:51 → CLT 08:21AA 1091 3h 02m Charlotte CLT 11:23 → SRQ 13:23AA 3328 7h 32m 97% 75%
AmericanDetails → DFW 17:09 → MIA 21:07AA 3308 1h 47m Miami MIA 22:54 → SRQ 23:59AA 4071 · flown by Envoy 5h 50m 85% 68%
AmericanDetails → DFW 07:23 → PHL 11:34AA 417 1h 20m Philadelphia PHL 12:54 → SRQ 15:33AA 2758 7h 10m 90% 67%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON