Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: MQ 3668 at 16:36 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19–35%.

Safest bet that day MQ 3668 DFW 16:36 → VPS 18:37 · 15% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1201 DFW 19:02 → VPS 21:01 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3668 Envoy	DFW 16:36	VPS 18:37	15%	4%	1.0%	no record
AA 3089 American	DFW 09:44	VPS 11:49	19%	6%	1.0%	no record
AA 2501 American Flight history →	DFW 13:19	VPS 15:15	31%	8%	1.0%	66%
AA 1201 American Flight history →	DFW 19:02	VPS 21:01	35%	12%	1.5%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON