Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: OH 5238 at 05:55 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 30%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


OH 5238 PSA	DSM 05:55	DCA 09:31	16%	6%	2.4%	no record
OH 5296 PSA	DSM 14:35	DCA 18:06	30%	14%	2.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of Des Moines). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DSM 06:03 → DTW 08:41DL 5414 · flown by Endeavor	1h 19m Detroit	DTW 10:00 → DCA 11:28DL 2476	4h 25m	94%	80%
Delta Details →	DSM 05:41 → ATL 08:48DL 2727	2h 09m Atlanta	ATL 10:57 → DCA 12:43DL 1798	6h 02m	96%	79%
Delta Details →	DSM 07:07 → MSP 08:22DL 5402 · flown by Endeavor	2h 03m Minneapolis	MSP 10:25 → DCA 13:48DL 2983	5h 41m	94%	79%
United Details →	DSM 06:20 → IAH 08:49UA 1982	3h 06m Houston	IAH 11:55 → DCA 16:03UA 654	8h 43m	99%	72%
Delta Details →	DSM 10:59 → MSP 12:12DL 4998 · flown by Endeavor	2h 25m Minneapolis	MSP 14:37 → DCA 18:09DL 2963	6h 10m	98%	70%
American Details →	DSM 06:20 → DFW 08:14AA 2326	3h 40m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:54 → DCA 15:59AA 1414	8h 39m	98%	70%
Delta Details →	DSM 14:25 → ATL 17:38DL 2094	3h 17m Atlanta	ATL 20:55 → DCA 22:48DL 378	7h 23m	100%	70%
Delta Details →	DSM 14:44 → MSP 15:59DL 5490 · flown by Endeavor	3h 33m Minneapolis	MSP 19:32 → DCA 23:04DL 1897	7h 20m	97%	68%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	DSM 16:01 → DFW 18:05AA 1664	47m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:52 → DCA 22:59AA 2752	5h 58m	51%	30%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON