Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: WN 3440 at 06:19 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–41%.

Safest bet that day WN 3440 DSM 06:19 → DEN 07:13 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3967 DSM 19:09 → DEN 20:01 · 41% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3440 Southwest	DSM 06:19	DEN 07:13	6%	2%	0.8%	no record
UA 1348 United	DSM 05:45	DEN 07:03	8%	4%	1.1%	no record
UA 1521 United Flight history →	DSM 09:14	DEN 10:20	14%	5%	0.9%	88%
OO 5950 SkyWest	DSM 11:38	DEN 13:00	17%	7%	1.0%	no record
UA 2064 United	DSM 13:24	DEN 14:50	23%	9%	0.9%	no record
F9 1677 Frontier Flight history →	DSM 20:21	DEN 21:22	27%	11%	1.2%	81%
UA 1781 United Flight history →	DSM 17:41	DEN 18:43	37%	12%	0.8%	66%
WN 3967 Southwest	DSM 19:09	DEN 20:01	41%	10%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON