Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, OO 6230 at 19:32, with a 25% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


OO 6230 SkyWest	DSM 19:32	LAX 21:14	25%	9%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 2 h behind Des Moines). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DSM 05:41 → ATL 08:48DL 2727	3h 52m Atlanta	ATL 12:40 → LAX 14:12DL 895	10h 31m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	DSM 07:08 → MSP 08:23DL 5402 · flown by Endeavor	3h 07m Minneapolis	MSP 11:30 → LAX 13:23DL 2119	8h 15m	97%	81%
Delta Details →	DSM 14:25 → ATL 17:38DL 2094	3h 12m Atlanta	ATL 20:50 → LAX 22:32DL 331	10h 07m	100%	76%
United Details →	DSM 06:20 → IAH 08:49UA 1982	1h 33m Houston	IAH 10:22 → LAX 12:00UA 469	7h 40m	96%	75%
Delta Details →	DSM 10:13 → DTW 13:03DL 5058 · flown by Endeavor	2h 47m Detroit	DTW 15:50 → LAX 17:33DL 883	9h 20m	97%	75%
American Details →	DSM 06:04 → DFW 08:07AA 2326	2h 49m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:56 → LAX 12:24AA 3181	8h 20m	97%	73%
Delta Details →	DSM 11:30 → ATL 14:43DL 1704	3h 15m Atlanta	ATL 17:58 → LAX 19:30DL 500	10h 00m	98%	73%
United Details →	DSM 09:14 → DEN 10:20UA 1521	3h 06m Denver	DEN 13:26 → LAX 14:57UA 774	7h 43m	97%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON