Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: WN 1837 at 05:09 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 24%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 1837 Southwest	DSM 05:09	MDW 06:34	7%	3%	1.8%	no record
WN 1838 Southwest	DSM 16:29	MDW 17:53	24%	6%	1.4%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DSM 06:03 → DTW 08:41DL 5414 · flown by Endeavor	3h 33m Detroit	DTW 12:14 → MDW 12:35DL 4688 · flown by Endeavor	6h 32m	97%	81%
Delta Details →	DSM 05:41 → ATL 08:48DL 2727	2h 12m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MDW 11:56DL 2417	6h 15m	96%	79%
Delta Details →	DSM 07:07 → MSP 08:22DL 5402 · flown by Endeavor	3h 25m Minneapolis	MSP 11:47 → MDW 13:18DL 4820 · flown by Endeavor	6h 11m	97%	78%
Delta Details →	DSM 14:44 → MSP 15:59DL 5490 · flown by Endeavor	1h 03m Minneapolis	MSP 17:02 → MDW 18:43DL 4714 · flown by Endeavor	3h 59m	81%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON