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Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Delta via Seattle, leaving 08:35, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching Anchorage on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 4 h behind Detroit). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DTW 08:35 → SEA 10:34DL 734 3h 42m Seattle SEA 14:16 → ANC 17:06DL 928 12h 31m 100% 77%
DeltaDetails → DTW 16:46 → SEA 18:42DL 944 3h 04m Seattle SEA 21:46 → ANC 00:35 +1DL 936 11h 49m 99% 75%
DeltaDetails → DTW 05:59 → SEA 07:43DL 732 3h 25m Seattle SEA 11:08 → ANC 13:52DL 922 11h 53m 100% 75%
DeltaDetails → DTW 12:56 → SEA 14:43DL 728 2h 44m Seattle SEA 17:27 → ANC 20:10DL 2367 11h 14m 98% 74%
AlaskaDetails → DTW 18:13 → SEA 19:42AS 313 3h 08m Seattle SEA 22:50 → ANC 01:33 +1AS 703 11h 20m 100% 69%
UnitedDetails → DTW 15:32 → DEN 16:45UA 302 2h 26m Denver DEN 19:11 → ANC 23:01UA 280 11h 29m 95% 64%
AmericanDetails → DTW 12:23 → DFW 14:10AA 3101 1h 09m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:19 → ANC 19:34AA 399 11h 11m 78% 53%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → DTW 14:10 → ORD 14:47UA 5381 · flown by SkyWest 1h 14m Chicago ORD 16:01 → ANC 19:38UA 461 9h 28m 68% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON