Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: DL 1218 at 09:04 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–30%.

Safest bet that day DL 1218 DTW 09:04 → AUS 10:59 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest DL 2578 DTW 20:08 → AUS 22:06 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1218 Delta Flight history →	DTW 09:04	AUS 10:59	14%	3%	0.9%	85%
DL 1012 Delta Flight history →	DTW 12:14	AUS 14:20	20%	5%	0.9%	82%
DL 1612 Delta Flight history →	DTW 16:35	AUS 18:41	27%	8%	1.0%	80%
DL 2578 Delta Flight history →	DTW 20:08	AUS 22:06	30%	11%	1.2%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON