Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: DL 5392 at 08:44 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–26%.

Safest bet that day DL 5392 DTW 08:44 → CLE 09:46 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest OO 4021 DTW 20:01 → CLE 21:03 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5392 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	DTW 08:44	CLE 09:46	9%	3%	0.9%	84%
DL 5359 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	DTW 12:44	CLE 13:43	13%	4%	1.0%	80%
9E 5409 Endeavor	DTW 14:16	CLE 15:17	15%	4%	1.1%	no record
DL 4954 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	DTW 17:47	CLE 18:48	19%	7%	1.9%	67%
DL 4646 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	DTW 23:03	CLE 00:04	23%	9%	5.2%	66%
OO 4021 SkyWest	DTW 20:01	CLE 21:03	26%	12%	2.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON