Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: DL 2481 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–28%.

Safest bet that day DL 2481 DTW 07:05 → CLT 08:52 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest DL 2352 DTW 20:05 → CLT 21:57 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2481 Delta Flight history →	DTW 07:05	CLT 08:52	7%	2%	0.9%	87%
AA 1439 American Flight history →	DTW 07:00	CLT 08:54	8%	2%	0.9%	94%
AA 387 American Flight history →	DTW 06:00	CLT 07:51	9%	2%	1.0%	92%
DL 2684 Delta Flight history →	DTW 09:58	CLT 11:48	9%	2%	0.8%	85%
AA 2582 American Flight history →	DTW 09:58	CLT 11:53	10%	3%	0.8%	90%
DL 1429 Delta Flight history →	DTW 14:35	CLT 16:22	15%	3%	0.8%	85%
AA 1683 American Flight history →	DTW 13:52	CLT 15:48	16%	4%	0.8%	83%
AA 2198 American	DTW 17:02	CLT 18:59	20%	6%	0.9%	no record
AA 1443 American	DTW 19:58	CLT 22:00	22%	9%	1.1%	no record
DL 2352 Delta Flight history →	DTW 20:05	CLT 21:57	28%	7%	1.0%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON