Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Wed 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: DL 1558 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–34%.

Safest bet that day DL 1558 DTW 07:05 → DCA 08:40 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest DL 2073 DTW 21:24 → DCA 22:59 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1558 Delta Flight history →	DTW 07:05	DCA 08:40	9%	3%	1.2%	81%
AA 5244 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DTW 06:41	DCA 08:31	10%	5%	2.0%	84%
AA 5660 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DTW 09:56	DCA 11:38	11%	6%	1.9%	80%
DL 2476 Delta Flight history →	DTW 10:00	DCA 11:28	14%	3%	1.0%	87%
AA 4616 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DTW 13:20	DCA 15:15	19%	6%	1.3%	62%
OH 5371 PSA	DTW 17:20	DCA 18:59	29%	15%	2.7%	no record
DL 1454 Delta Flight history →	DTW 14:55	DCA 16:34	30%	9%	1.0%	51%
DL 2030 Delta Flight history →	DTW 16:53	DCA 18:33	34%	11%	1.2%	59%
DL 2073 Delta Flight history →	DTW 21:24	DCA 22:59	34%	16%	2.3%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON