Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 07:01, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Honolulu on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 307 Delta Flight history →	DTW 10:30	HNL 14:07	19%	4%	0.8%	77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Honolulu on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 6 h behind Detroit). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DTW 07:01 → MSP 07:53DL 1746	2h 17m Minneapolis	MSP 10:10 → HNL 13:43DL 312	12h 42m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	DTW 06:17 → ATL 08:11DL 1611	1h 39m Atlanta	ATL 09:50 → HNL 13:20DL 837	13h 03m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	DTW 08:35 → LAX 10:20DL 523	3h 35m Los Angeles	LAX 13:55 → HNL 16:43DL 465	14h 08m	99%	79%
United Details →	DTW 08:57 → DEN 10:03UA 2302	1h 57m Denver	DEN 12:00 → HNL 15:13UA 384	12h 16m	100%	77%
Delta Details →	DTW 08:25 → SLC 10:21DL 698	1h 24m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:45 → HNL 14:19DL 316	11h 54m	94%	74%
Delta Details →	DTW 12:56 → SEA 14:39DL 728	1h 57m Seattle	SEA 16:36 → HNL 19:30DL 419	12h 34m	97%	73%
United Details →	DTW 06:56 → SFO 08:58UA 1550	1h 47m San Francisco	SFO 10:45 → HNL 13:20UA 2380	12h 24m	95%	72%
Delta Details →	DTW 06:57 → JFK 08:37DL 5216 · flown by Endeavor	1h 25m New York	JFK 10:02 → HNL 14:40DL 636	13h 43m	91%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON