Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: DL 4684 at 08:36 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–36%.

Safest bet that day DL 4684 DTW 08:36 → MDW 09:00 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time Riskiest WN 1849 DTW 20:04 → MDW 20:25 · 36% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 4684 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	DTW 08:36	MDW 09:00	9%	5%	1.6%	74%
WN 1845 Southwest	DTW 08:15	MDW 08:35	13%	3%	0.9%	no record
DL 4688 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	DTW 12:14	MDW 12:35	14%	5%	2.0%	82%
DL 4677 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	DTW 18:09	MDW 18:33	15%	9%	2.4%	60%
WN 4477 Southwest	DTW 15:01	MDW 15:19	30%	6%	1.5%	no record
WN 1849 Southwest	DTW 20:04	MDW 20:25	36%	10%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON