Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Wed 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: 9E 5385 at 08:29 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23%.

Safest bet that day 9E 5385 DTW 08:29 → MSN 08:53 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest 9E 5126 DTW 20:57 → MSN 21:21 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


9E 5385 Endeavor	DTW 08:29	MSN 08:53	11%	3%	1.7%	no record
DL 844 Delta Flight history →	DTW 12:26	MSN 12:42	19%	6%	1.3%	80%
DL 5245 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	DTW 17:00	MSN 17:25	23%	9%	3.4%	68%
9E 5126 Endeavor	DTW 20:57	MSN 21:21	23%	10%	2.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON