Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 20 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: YX 3440 at 05:37 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 38–57%.

Safest bet that day YX 3440 DTW 05:37 → ORD 06:08 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 1084 DTW 17:58 → ORD 18:29 · 57% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 3440 Republic	DTW 05:37	ORD 06:08	8%	4%	2.0%	no record
UA 2027 United	DTW 07:29	ORD 08:01	16%	7%	1.0%	no record
AA 4103 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DTW 10:25	ORD 11:00	20%	7%	2.2%	94%worse than usual
DL 2840 Delta	DTW 07:36	ORD 07:55	20%	6%	1.4%	no record
AA 6465 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DTW 08:31	ORD 08:59	22%	8%	1.8%	80%
UA 426 United Flight history →	DTW 10:13	ORD 10:36	22%	10%	1.1%	70%
OO 3819 SkyWest	DTW 10:09	ORD 10:31	22%	11%	1.9%	no record
MQ 3571 Envoy	DTW 08:32	ORD 08:54	22%	7%	2.0%	no record
UA 1503 United	DTW 08:57	ORD 09:20	32%	10%	1.1%	no record
DL 1716 Delta Flight history →	DTW 12:35	ORD 13:03	35%	16%	1.8%	78%worse than usual
YX 3441 Republic	DTW 12:35	ORD 13:04	38%	13%	3.2%	no record
MQ 4105 Envoy	DTW 20:55	ORD 21:17	38%	12%	3.7%	no record
UA 5381 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DTW 14:10	ORD 14:47	42%	20%	3.1%	71%worse than usual
AA 3977 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DTW 13:43	ORD 14:03	42%	14%	4.4%	91%worse than usual
AA 3980 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DTW 16:53	ORD 17:15	43%	16%	5.0%	81%worse than usual
DL 2358 Delta Flight history →	DTW 15:56	ORD 16:23	44%	19%	2.0%	76%worse than usual
DL 1665 Delta Flight history →	DTW 20:00	ORD 20:31	46%	15%	2.3%	66%worse than usual
UA 2771 United	DTW 19:15	ORD 19:49	48%	19%	1.2%	no record
UA 4673 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DTW 16:26	ORD 16:57	50%	22%	4.4%	49%
DL 1084 Delta Flight history →	DTW 17:58	ORD 18:29	57%	23%	2.2%	61%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON