Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: DL 1070 at 08:35 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–33%.

Safest bet that day DL 1070 DTW 08:35 → PHX 09:44 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest DL 2076 DTW 20:08 → PHX 21:16 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1070 Delta Flight history →	DTW 08:35	PHX 09:44	16%	3%	0.8%	80%
AA 839 American Flight history →	DTW 08:09	PHX 09:47	17%	4%	0.9%	87%
F9 4671 Frontier Flight history →	DTW 06:01	PHX 07:31	18%	6%	2.4%	75%
DL 813 Delta Flight history →	DTW 12:47	PHX 13:50	22%	5%	0.7%	80%
AA 1424 American	DTW 17:42	PHX 19:11	29%	9%	0.8%	no record
DL 1135 Delta Flight history →	DTW 16:50	PHX 17:55	30%	8%	0.7%	67%
DL 2076 Delta Flight history →	DTW 20:08	PHX 21:16	33%	11%	1.0%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON