Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 426 Delta Flight history →	DTW 10:00	PWM 11:55	9%	2%	0.7%	92%
DL 1821 Delta Flight history →	DTW 14:05	PWM 16:01	14%	3%	0.7%	89%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	DTW 06:00 → PHL 07:55AA 5414 · flown by PSA	2h 33m Philadelphia	PHL 10:28 → PWM 12:04AA 1436	6h 04m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	DTW 05:17 → ATL 07:10DL 2375	3h 10m Atlanta	ATL 10:20 → PWM 13:00DL 2479	7h 43m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	DTW 14:59 → ATL 17:03DL 1983	3h 32m Atlanta	ATL 20:35 → PWM 23:14DL 2138	8h 15m	100%	78%
American Details →	DTW 06:00 → LGA 07:47AA 4477 · flown by Republic	2h 25m New York	LGA 10:12 → PWM 11:44AA 4571 · flown by Republic	5h 44m	98%	76%
American Details →	DTW 11:24 → PHL 13:16AA 5480 · flown by PSA	1h 27m Philadelphia	PHL 14:43 → PWM 16:21AA 5127 · flown by PSA	4h 57m	95%	76%
Delta Details →	DTW 07:00 → LGA 08:47DL 1487	2h 55m New York	LGA 11:42 → PWM 13:04DL 5346 · flown by Endeavor	6h 04m	99%	75%
American Details →	DTW 09:58 → CLT 11:53AA 2582	2h 26m Charlotte	CLT 14:19 → PWM 16:32AA 1744	6h 34m	97%	72%
American Details →	DTW 09:54 → DCA 11:38AA 5660 · flown by PSA	2h 32m Washington	DCA 14:10 → PWM 16:00AA 2355	6h 06m	97%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON