Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: DL 1427 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–29%.

Safest bet that day DL 1427 DTW 07:05 → RDU 08:48 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest F9 2640 DTW 18:46 → RDU 20:41 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1427 Delta Flight history →	DTW 07:05	RDU 08:48	6%	2%	0.9%	94%
DL 2164 Delta Flight history →	DTW 10:15	RDU 11:57	9%	2%	0.8%	89%
DL 1407 Delta Flight history →	DTW 16:02	RDU 17:47	19%	5%	0.9%	84%
DL 2839 Delta Flight history →	DTW 21:40	RDU 23:25	25%	9%	2.0%	75%
F9 2640 Frontier Flight history →	DTW 18:46	RDU 20:41	29%	13%	1.8%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON