Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: UA 1550 at 06:56 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–42%.

Safest bet that day UA 1550 DTW 06:56 → SFO 09:01 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time Riskiest DL 335 DTW 19:53 → SFO 21:54 · 42% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1550 United Flight history →	DTW 06:56	SFO 09:01	18%	5%	0.7%	61%
DL 361 Delta Flight history →	DTW 08:30	SFO 10:27	22%	6%	0.7%	75%
DL 469 Delta Flight history →	DTW 12:15	SFO 14:17	24%	6%	0.7%	70%
DL 442 Delta Flight history →	DTW 16:56	SFO 18:50	31%	9%	0.7%	69%
UA 1118 United	DTW 19:37	SFO 21:52	40%	13%	0.8%	no record
DL 335 Delta	DTW 19:53	SFO 21:54	42%	12%	0.8%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	DTW 09:00 → MSP 09:54DL 2258	1h 06m Minneapolis	MSP 11:00 → SFO 13:09DL 2074	7h 09m	92%	75%
Delta Details →	DTW 07:01 → MSP 07:53DL 1746	54m Minneapolis	MSP 08:47 → SFO 10:42DL 2078	6h 41m	89%	70%
United Details →	DTW 08:57 → DEN 10:06UA 2302	1h 15m Denver	DEN 11:21 → SFO 13:04UA 1561	7h 07m	86%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON