Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: DL 2852 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–24%.

Safest bet that day DL 2852 DTW 07:00 → TPA 09:36 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest DL 1355 DTW 18:38 → TPA 21:29 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2852 Delta Flight history →	DTW 07:00	TPA 09:36	7%	2%	1.0%	87%
DL 2587 Delta Flight history →	DTW 10:15	TPA 12:50	16%	3%	2.5%	79%
F9 1036 Frontier Flight history →	DTW 11:24	TPA 14:22	19%	8%	2.5%	71%
DL 1243 Delta Flight history →	DTW 14:07	TPA 16:45	20%	5%	1.1%	83%
DL 1355 Delta Flight history →	DTW 18:38	TPA 21:29	24%	8%	1.1%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON