Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, DL 4889 at 15:47, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 4889 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	DTW 15:47	XNA 17:09	15%	4%	1.1%	66%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fayetteville/Springdale/ on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fayetteville/Springdale/ is 1 h behind Detroit). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	DTW 07:58 → DFW 09:54AA 482	2h 51m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:45 → XNA 14:04AA 3803 · flown by Envoy	7h 06m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	DTW 05:17 → ATL 07:10DL 2375	1h 31m Atlanta	ATL 08:41 → XNA 09:36DL 5339 · flown by Endeavor	5h 19m	96%	81%
Delta Details →	DTW 18:09 → ATL 20:19DL 2053	2h 41m Atlanta	ATL 23:00 → XNA 00:02 +1DL 3747 · flown by SkyWest	6h 53m	95%	78%
American Details →	DTW 06:00 → PHL 07:55AA 5414 · flown by PSA	2h 33m Philadelphia	PHL 10:28 → XNA 12:31AA 5543 · flown by PSA	7h 31m	100%	78%
American Details →	DTW 06:00 → CLT 07:51AA 387	1h 10m Charlotte	CLT 09:01 → XNA 10:35AA 5446 · flown by PSA	5h 35m	92%	76%
Delta Details →	DTW 15:59 → ATL 18:00DL 1467	3h 15m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → XNA 22:12DL 1864	7h 13m	98%	75%
United Details →	DTW 08:57 → DEN 10:06UA 2302	3h 24m Denver	DEN 13:30 → XNA 16:25UA 5641 · flown by SkyWest	8h 28m	100%	75%
Delta Details →	DTW 14:59 → ATL 17:03DL 1983	2h 29m Atlanta	ATL 19:32 → XNA 20:29DL 1710	6h 30m	100%	75%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	DTW 18:09 → ATL 20:19DL 2053	56m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → XNA 22:12DL 1864	5h 03m	69%	53%
American Details →	DTW 12:23 → DFW 14:10AA 3101	47m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:57 → XNA 16:19AA 495	4h 56m	63%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON