Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Philadelphia on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 1 h ahead of Panama City Beach). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ECP 06:00 → ATL 08:13DL 3114	3h 08m Atlanta	ATL 11:21 → PHL 13:24DL 2279	6h 24m	96%	80%
Delta Details →	ECP 07:27 → ATL 09:38DL 1674	3h 22m Atlanta	ATL 13:00 → PHL 15:02DL 2131	6h 35m	99%	75%
Delta Details →	ECP 09:12 → ATL 11:20DL 3048	2h 40m Atlanta	ATL 14:00 → PHL 16:04DL 1692	5h 52m	98%	73%
Delta Details →	ECP 18:16 → ATL 20:28DL 3053	2h 28m Atlanta	ATL 22:56 → PHL 00:59 +1DL 2642	5h 43m	95%	72%
Delta Details →	ECP 16:27 → ATL 18:38DL 3094	1h 43m Atlanta	ATL 20:21 → PHL 22:24DL 1174	4h 57m	88%	66%
Delta Details →	ECP 11:38 → ATL 13:51DL 3045	2h 14m Atlanta	ATL 16:05 → PHL 18:12DL 1329	5h 34m	97%	66%
Delta Details →	ECP 13:41 → ATL 15:53DL 2823	2h 30m Atlanta	ATL 18:23 → PHL 20:26DL 2065	5h 45m	96%	64%
Southwest Details →	ECP 10:51 → BNA 12:28WN 311	3h 01m Nashville	BNA 15:29 → PHL 18:38WN 419	6h 47m	99%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON