Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: UA 6303 at 05:37 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–26%.

Safest bet that day UA 6303 ELP 05:37 → IAH 08:45 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest UA 6292 ELP 17:34 → IAH 20:43 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 6303 United flown by Mesa Flight history →	ELP 05:37	IAH 08:45	13%	6%	1.8%	92%
UA 6163 United flown by Mesa Flight history →	ELP 07:00	IAH 10:08	16%	6%	2.0%	93%
UA 4002 United flown by Mesa Flight history →	ELP 12:44	IAH 15:46	21%	8%	1.2%	83%
UA 3994 United flown by Mesa Flight history →	ELP 08:05	IAH 11:00	22%	7%	1.6%	90%worse than usual
OO 5312 SkyWest	ELP 14:09	IAH 17:13	24%	10%	0.8%	no record
UA 6292 United flown by Mesa Flight history →	ELP 17:34	IAH 20:43	26%	9%	1.4%	86%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON