Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: WN 4425 at 06:59 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–32%.

Safest bet that day WN 4425 ELP 06:59 → LAS 07:53 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1967 ELP 20:34 → LAS 21:28 · 32% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4425 Southwest	ELP 06:59	LAS 07:53	7%	1%	0.6%	no record
F9 3449 Frontier Flight history →	ELP 21:08	LAS 22:09	25%	11%	1.1%	74%
WN 263 Southwest	ELP 12:19	LAS 13:12	28%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 1967 Southwest	ELP 20:34	LAS 21:28	32%	8%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON